Digital Whispers

The Odds Were Not In Their Favor: Ad Age & "The Hunger Games"

  Three short days ago, Advertising Age ran a column titled "Why The Hunger Games Won't Make $100 Million Its Opening Weekend."  The article was right -- the movie pulled in $155M through Saturday, and is still racking up the box office numbers.  Oops. 

Controversial headlines and contrary opinions are the stuff of online commentary (I know, I often write them myself).  But this particular article stuck with me, for two reasons:  1) It was published in Ad Age, the grand doyenne of advertising, and 2) I knew the view it expressed was totally, completely and utterly wrong.

The author, Seraj Bharwani, is the chief analytics officer for Visible Measures, which tracks the effectiveness of shared online media.  I appreciate his bravery for going so far out on a limb.   But, in making his predictions, he may have forgotten the first lesson that every good marketer seems to grok intuitively:  Know Thy Audience. 

Know Thy Audience, part 1:  The movie studios.  Studios have a tried-and-true prediction model, developed from their favorite pre-release tracking tool:  consumer surveys.  The model said that John Carter would be a domestic bust.  Guess what?  It was.  The model predicted a plus-$125M opening for Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows 2.  Guess what?  It hit $169M.   The model even got The Dark Knight right, with a plus- $130M forecast (the movie pulled in $158M).  Why suddenly would the tried-and-true be wrong?  Because Visible Measures assumed that Lionsgate didn't know their audience. 

Boston-based Visible Measures is far, far away from Hollywood, so one might assume that the company is not incredibly familiar with the butts-in-seats marketing tactics that are SOP for every movie release.  Those tactics, interestingly enough, still include a huge amount of not-so-online media, which means that an analysis driven solely by online media metrics is going to omit a significant chunk of pertinent data.  If Twitter feeds and online trailers were the only things driving movie attendance, Hollywood would have dropped their other expenditures long ago.  Making and marketing movies is expensive, brah.  Granted, Lionsgate spent a mountain of money online, but the campaigns were much more sophisticated than usual: not many kids' movies do product tie-ups with Rodarte and create Tumblr blogs focusing on fashion.   It bears mentioning that Lionsgate went a step further, and didn't create a single trailer showing the action in the actual Hunger Games themselves, which possibly reduced the significance of the metric given the most weight by Visible Measures' analysis:  online trailer views. 

Which brings me to Know Thy Audience, part 2:  The consumers.   Yes, The Hunger Games (THG) books are a young adult (YA) franchise.  Yes, they have some superficial similarities to the Twilight series, and perhaps an even stronger relationship to Harry Potter, which spanned gender and ages when it came to popularity.  But the depth and breadth of the audience for THG books meant that it was a mistake to assume that the movie audience would not follow the same pattern - which is what happened in the Visible Measures analysis:  they discounted the grownups.  

Forbes' Meghan Casserly does a much better assessment, and she does it by starting in the right place:  with the audience for THG books.  Casserly notes that adults consumed the books in almost equal numbers to the kids (I myself read all three in four days after my teenage daughter handed them to me), meaning that the base for the movie moved way beyond the assumed click-happy YA contingent.  Which also meant that Hollywood's plus-$100M estimate for the opening was right on the money, and then some.

To be fair to Visible Measures, the movie business is often a total crap shoot, where - to quote Shakespeare in Love - the success of any endeavor in the biz "is a mystery."  THG could have been a bad movie (it's not), there could have been a massive East Coast blizzard opening weekend (there wasn't), girls who kick ass could be a theme whose time has passed (it hasn't).  Lionsgate has got a massive hit on their hands:  they knew the odds were in their favor, because they put both online and traditional media to work for them, and because they knew their audience. 

Would You Watch the Super Bowl If It Were Broadcast in 3D?

Online poll from GoPollGo

The 3D Olympics: Who Will Be Watching?

Three years ago, on a totally different blog, I predicted that we’d soon be watching Michael Phelps work his watery magic in 3D.   And now, here we are.

This week at CES, Panasonic announced that the company would be helping power the broadcast of the 2012 London Summer Olympics in 3D, planning to feature more than 200 hours of competition. 

The big question is: who will be watching?    3D TV, after three years as the darling of CES, has been replaced by new buzzwords, like “OLED” and “connected.”

Part of the reason, for sure, has been the somewhat lackluster perceptions of televisions with 3D capabilities.  The CE industry’s first misfire – active glasses – was quickly followed by expensive product bundling (3DTV + Blu Ray), and then the desultory release of the passive glasses format, eroding consumers’ perceived excitement for 3D TV. 

However, unit sales have actually been surprisingly robust.  NPD reports US  shipments of 21.5M 3D TV’s in 2011, and expects the format to hold a slightly more than 21% market share by the end of 2012. 

Actual US 3D channel subscriber numbers are harder to come by.  DirecTV carries three 3D channels, which are available to any subscriber with an HD DirecTV box, although the channels cannot be accessed unless connected to a 3D TV.  Verizon’s FiOS and AT&T’s U-verse, as well as Comcast and Cablevision also offer 3D content selections. 

Europe and South America have jumped on (and in some cases, off) the bandwagon, with BSkyB carrying the flag as the first network in the world to offer a full-blown 3D channel. 

But Asia is where the action is.  South Korea and Japan have been offering 3D TV for several years to receptive audiences.  China, however, is set to blow the roof off the party.  CCTV will debut a free 3D TV network in 2012, and will carry the Olympics 3D broadcasts.  With 500 million TV’s in China, the endeavor promises to feel successful if only a fraction of TV owners upgrade to 3D-capable displays. 

So, how many folks will actually be watching the Olympics in 3D?  Barring some sort of public arrangement similar to Sky’s debut of its 3D channel, when it outfitted pubs in the UK with 3D TV’s, estimates for worldwide 3D viewership hover somewhere between 8M and 12M.  A worthy number, but still a small fraction of the 4+ billion people who are expected to watch the Olympics via plain old 2D TV. 

Either way, Mr. Phelps' performance will be enjoyable, for sure.  Excellence shines in any display format.

Todays's 3D Whispers: iPad glasses-free 3D overlay, glasses attitude shift, low-cost UK 3D TV's,

Japanese company Newsight has announced that they will begin selling a glasses-free 3D overlay for the iPad in July.  The overlay uses parallax barrier technology similar to that used in the Nintendo 3DS and on upcoming 3D smartphones.  Newsight is also releasing apps and SDK's for developers to show off the capabilities of the overlay.  Here's wondering if YouTube's newly-finished 3D player will support it, as well?  NPD and CTAM have released a study indicating that the resistance to glasses among 3D TV owners is fading, and that movies remain the most common 3D TV viewing experience.  Finally, innovative CE manufacturer Cello is launching a low-cost 3D TV range in the UK, with prices starting at £499.  (Photo:  Maison Binoclette.)

Beyond the Box Office: A Look at the Future of S3D.

Over the past couple of weeks, it’s become fashionable for western entertainment media and analysts to bash 3D movies. I keep waiting for the writer or analyst interested in taking a longer-term view of the format and what it bodes, but so far, none have emerged. So, I’m going to expound on this subject myself. And if someone wants to hire me as a writer or analyst as a result, well my contact info’s on my website.

Help Me, Obi-Wan Kenobi!

As human beings, we are driven to seek ever-more immersive forms of entertainment. What started with shadow puppets and cave paintings has spawned an industry that is now a key driver of the world’s economic activity. It’s an often-expressed sentiment on Interwebs comment boards that “I’m skipping the 3D movie, wake me up when we get to the Holodeck!.” But the mere statement begs the question: How exactly are we getting to that Holodeck? Stereoscopic movies, and the coming wave of products that are going to put their production in the hands of consumers, are another step in that direction … a step that’s already driving display innovation (the glasses-free 3D displays available on smartphones and tablets; the forthcoming LED versions on cinema-size screens; Sony’s Playstation 3D TV that provides two separate simultaneous POV’s for gamers); innovation in image acquisition (integrated stereo cameras, multi-view camera arrays; increased recording frame rates); and ever-more rich audio environments (“3D” positional audio systems; multi-track , customizable soundtracks).

Many of us remember the wave of experimental virtual reality technologies that emerged in the 90’s. Most of them, at least in their original incarnations, have apparently gone by the wayside. But the truth is, another generation of innovators has been hard at work, modifying the original DNA into training, collaboration and research--as well as entertainment--applications. Many of these applications use stereo imagery and 3D user interfaces. (Today is the deadline for submitting your poster, demo or industrial paper to the 2011 Joint Virtual Reality Conference, if you’re interested.) 

And watch out for companies like Fourth Wall Studios, who promise to take today’s concept of “alternate reality game” to a whole new dimension (pun intended). I’d be very surprised if stereo imagery isn’t a part of their near-term game plan. 

None of this innovation would occur if the creatives didn’t help kick-start the process. So, for all the hue and cry over how the “studios have milked and wrecked the format,” it’s that very alleged milking and wrecking that has driven heavyweights like Cameron, Jackson, Spielberg, Scorcese, Scott, and Luhrmann into the medium: to prove what they can do with it.

Does anyone remember the Newton? Without it, there would be no iPad. Without stereo movies, there will be no Holodeck.

(I still can’t get over the irony that iconoclast Werner Herzog used entertainment’s newest innovation tell a story about one of its oldest innovations: cave paintings. But them, Mr. Herzog has always had a delicious sense of humor, despite claims to the contrary. )

Movies are sexy, teachers, researchers and doctors are not.

Entertainment has become the poster child for stereoscopic imagery, but the reality is that there are also vast advancements in knowledge and economic riches bound up in its use in other fields. Take education, for instance. Studies have repeatedly shown that children who are taught with the aid of 3D imagery retain more information and understand it better than their counterparts who are taught with traditional educational tools. Just think what we could to if we cared enough to arm teachers with these resources, rather than spending time dotting message boards with polemics about how much we hate 3D?

On the medical front, stereo imagery has been aiding difficult surgeries for years. The same technology that propelled Avatar has driven innovations like the O-Arm and improved visibility in laparoscopic surgeries. It even allows doctors to access medical records, X-rays and CAT scans, Minority Report-style, using gesture controls during operations.

Even NASA has gotten into the 3D game, and is sending up a Panasonic 3D-A1 camera and accompanying recording gear to capture 3D images in space when the final shuttle Atlantis launches next month.

And of course, there is always national defense. 3D technologies are already being implemented in training simulations and product development, as well as to relieve the burden of full-time human surveillance and to power unmanned vehicles and flights.

But teachers, researchers, doctors and aerospace technicians don’t draw headlines the way Michael Bay can.  And despite the fact that 3D applications extend way beyond the bounds of the box office, Michael Bay’s star power generates silly headlines like this one.  Transformers may indeed feature rockin’ 3D imagery, but 3D doesn’t need a savior. It merely needs context, and an understanding that, without the hopeful experimentation and risk-taking driving the format, we would still be stuck in the age of cave paintings.

Today's 3D Whispers: E3 Expo

While last week's hype would lead us to believe that movies are the sole market movers when it comes to 3D, there's another, bigger game afoot (pun intended), and it's happening just down the street.  The annual E3 Expo in LA showcases the biggest, brightest and newest in videogame technology, and 3D has become a significant part of the story.  Sony made some jaws drop yesterday with the debut of its Playstation-branded 3D TV, which not only enables 3D gaming, but allows two players to see an entirely different 1080p image on a single screen.  The 24" TV will retail for $500.    Sony also owned the show when it came to early 3D game annoucements, with analysts predicting that its Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception could be the "Avatar" of 3D gaming.   And, GamerLive.tv has upped the media ante by covering the conference in 3D, partnering with NVIDIA and utilizing YouTube's 3D video player to show the coverage on their website.  Get out your glasses, y'all -- the gaming geeks are here, and they're in 3D. 

Today's 3D Whispers: E3 Expo

While last week's hype would lead us to believe that movies are the sole market movers when it comes to 3D, there's another, bigger game afoot (pun intended), and it's happening just down the street.  The annual E3 Expo in LA showcases the biggest, brightest and newest in videogame technology, and 3D has become a significant part of the story.  Sony made some jaws drop yesterday with the debut of its Playstation-branded 3D TV, which not only enables 3D gaming, but allows two players to see an entirely different 1080p image on a single screen.  The 24" TV will retail for $500.    Sony also owned the show when it came to early 3D game announcements, with analysts predicting that its Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception could be the "Avatar" of 3D gaming.   And, GamerLive.tv has upped the media ante by covering the conference in 3D, partnering with NVIDIA and utilizing YouTube's 3D video player to show the coverage on their website.  Get out your glasses, y'all -- the gaming geeks are here, and they're in 3D. 

A Sprint to Bring 3D to the People

While the newswires and Interwebs are abuzz with speculation and lurid headlines regarding whether 3D movies are dead, there's a flanking move happening out in left field that's putting 3D media right into consumers' hands. 

Sprint announced today that they've locked in some interesting 3D content deals for their launch of the HTC EVO 3D cell phone, due at the end of June.  The phone will ship with The Green Hornet in 3D pre-loaded on its internal microSD card, and will also carry versions of HTC's Watch and Blockbuster's On Demand applications, which will stream both 2D and 3D movies.  And, to add icing to the cake, the phone features dual rear-facing 5 mexapixel cameras that allow consumers to shoot 3D photos and video. 

The HTC EVO 3D, of course, is one of the new generation of mobile devices with an autostereo 3D screen.   Sprint and HTC have also formed partnerships with YouTube and Facebook to enable simple posting of videos.  YouTube has been working on a 3D version of its video player for several years, and offers 3D viewing in multiple formats, including side-by-side, interleaved and old-fashioned anaglyph. 

Just as the Internet and the birth of online video spawned a marketplace that lives outside the realm of traditional media producers, the advent of 3D mobile devices and easy 3D media sharing has the potential to spark a boomlet for the format.  After all, who's going to be able to resist showing off their baby/dog/favorite woodworking project/Prince concert in 3D?  

Mark Twain, Richard Greenfield, and the "Death" of 3D.

Mark Twain certainly knew how to craft a zinger.  Google "Mark Twain quotes" and you'll be rewarded with 732 good ones.  Too bad he preceded the talk show era -- he might have been bigger than Oprah. Definitely on par with Howard Stern, for sure. 

BTIG analyst Richard Greenfield is crafty with the zingers, as well. Like Mr. Twain (and to be fair, this author), he lives to sell his writing, and is great at generating headlines to support his work. 

The latest?  "The American Consumer is Rejecting 3D:  Will Hollywood Listen to Consumers vs. Forcing 3D on Us?," the headline from his May 24th research note (registration required), followed by "Will Memorial Day Weekend Give RealD & DreamWorks Animation a 3D Hangover?"  Mr. Greenfield has long been skeptical about 3D, and heaven knows we always need good skeptics, but I worry that his conclusion about the format is actually disguising the real situation, and the ensuing media reaction -- intentional or not -- is taking the emphasis away from what is actually happening in the movie exhibition business. 

Mr. Greenfield's opinion is based on the U.S. opening weekend figures for Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, where, despite the fact that the 3D screens made up 46% of the release, 3D represented only 38% of the total box office take.   This is a decline from Thor (48% screens/50% b.o.), and a significant decline from last year's Shrek Forever After (33% screens/54% b.o.) and How to Train Your Dragon (34% screens/57% b.o.).  (N.B. For some reason, Sony's Priest is omitted from the comparisons and there is a mistake regarding its b.o. numbers in the version of the note I saw; the movie opened on May 13th.)

Mr. Greenfield correctly surmises that the premium ticket prices for 3D may be turning consumers away, although I'm not sure he factors in any sort of effect related to whether the movie is an original or a sequel; whether it is live action or animated; the age of the target audience; what time of year it is; and the weather during opening weekend.  Oh, and perhaps a positive or negative review effect, as well.  (My point: there are a lot of factors.)    He does surmise that watching 3D movies is more tiring on the eyes, and that may have an impact on frequent movie goers, as they need time to rest ... no stats are proffered in support, however.  I hope there is an opthamologist or two who will weigh in on this issue. 

On the flip side, Pirates posted the biggest international box office opening ever, where 3D screens continue to be responsible for a 30% increase in receipts over the past five years.  Non-IMAX 3D represented 63% of Pirates' $260M gross, for an opening weekend total of nearly $164M.  In its second weekend, the movie apparently also pounded its 2-D only competition, The Hangover: Part II,  and is ahead of Kung Fu Panda 2, which posted the biggest animation opening ever in multiple overseas markets. 

Which brings me to my point:  I think Mr. Greenfield would better serve his clients by addressing what's actually happening -- the power in the movie exhibition market is moving overseas, and 3D is simply following the trend. 

Movies now earn nearly 70% of their box office internationally.  Many films from U.S. movie studios are now opening overseas before they open in the States.  There are many reasons for the sea change, ranging from the ongoing U.S. recession (yes, it's still here, y'all) to changing expectations regarding the exhibition experience and the general globalization of the world economy.   This is currently the biggest issue facing U.S. movie exhibitors.  

So, Mr. Greenfield is correct in suggesting that U.S. exhibitors should reëxamine their screen allocation and pricing strategies to better reflect the fact that, in the States, the perception of value provided by 3D is changing.   But his advice to Hollywood --"make fewer 3D films in 2012"-- is dead wrong, and perhaps even a bit jingoistic, in a world where China is adding three cinema screens a day.  To do so would mean leaving hundreds of millions of dollars of box office receipts on the table.

So, to quote Mr. Twain:  The reports of 3D's death are greatly exaggerated.   

Photo from AP. 

 

Today's 3D Whispers: Sony Launches Consumer 3D Contest; My 3D iPhone Viewer "Dad" Review; 3D TV Campaign for Safe Schools;

In today's 3D news, Sony is hoping to kickstart its huge investment in 3D with consumers by launching a contest called "Your Life in Sony 3D," inviting them to submit ideas that can potentially be turned into a professionally-shot 3D video to be aired on 3net and in Times Square.  As categories include "Life Milestones," perhaps Wills & Kate could be cajoled into submitting a few pix and a concept?  Wired's GeekDad reviews Hasbro's My3D for the iPhone this week, comparing it to an old-fashioned Viewmaster, and recommending it for those long rides to Grandma's house.  However, as with all things 3D, content for the device is still hard to come by.  Finally, in another indicator that the education market for 3D will be a blockbuster, SchoolSAFE has announced a public awareness campaign and a training initiative -- both in 3D -- timed for national Safe Schools Week this coming October.